Reshaping of Chip Supply-Demand Landscape: Three Major Structural Changes in the Semiconductor Market in the Second Half of 2026
The semiconductor market in the second half of 2026 is undergoing an unprecedented reshaping of its supply-demand landscape. With the explosive development of artificial intelligence technology, the acceleration of global supply chain restructuring, and the continuous emergence of new application scenarios, the supply-demand relationship for chips is undergoing profound changes. This article will analyze the current supply-demand situation in the semiconductor market and its impact on various links in the industrial chain from three dimensions: AI chips, memory chips, and mature process technologies.
Surging AI Chip Demand Coexists with Supply Bottlenecks
In 2026, AI chips have become the core engine driving semiconductor market growth. According to industry data, the global AI chip market size grew by more than 40% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, far exceeding the overall growth rate of the semiconductor industry. This growth is mainly attributed to the rapid popularization of large language model training, edge AI computing, and enterprise-level AI applications.
However, the supply side of AI chips faces severe challenges. On one hand, advanced process capacity remains tight, with the high-end capacity of wafer giants like TSMC and Samsung being long-term booked by AI chip manufacturers such as NVIDIA and AMD, with delivery cycles generally extended to 18-24 months. On the other hand, the increasing complexity of AI chip design makes yield control more difficult, further exacerbating the supply shortage.
Notably, the AI chip market is showing a clear trend of stratification. High-end training chips are in short supply, while the inference chip market is beginning to differentiate. With the popularization of AI applications, the demand for medium-performance AI chips is growing rapidly, providing new market opportunities for many chip design companies.
Memory Chip Market Undergoes Structural Adjustment
The memory chip market presents a complex and volatile situation in the second half of 2026. After experiencing rapid price increases earlier, the two mainstream storage products, DRAM and NAND Flash, are now entering a high-level adjustment period.
From the demand side, the strong demand for high-performance memory from AI servers and data centers continues to drive the shipment growth of high-end DRAM products such as High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and DDR5. Meanwhile, the increased storage capacity requirements for AI training have also promoted the penetration rate of NAND Flash in data center applications.
However, storage demand in traditional consumer electronics is relatively weak. The growth in shipments of end products such as smartphones and personal computers has slowed, leading to increased inventory pressure on mid-to-low-end storage products. This structural difference creates a clear "divergent" situation in the memory chip market.
On the supply side, memory chip manufacturers are actively adjusting their capacity structures. Leading companies like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are shifting more capacity to high-performance storage products needed for AI servers while reducing production of traditional DRAM and NAND Flash to adapt to changes in market demand.
Mature Process Foundry Market Recovery and Regional Layout
In contrast to the continued tightness of advanced processes, the wafer foundry market for mature processes (28nm and above) shows clear signs of recovery in the second half of 2026. This shift is mainly driven by strong demand from applications such as automotive electronics, industrial control, and the Internet of Things.
The continued growth of the automotive chip market is an important support for mature process demand. With the popularization of smart electric vehicles, the demand for mature process chips such as MCUs, power semiconductors, and sensors continues to increase. Meanwhile, the large-scale deployment of industrial automation and IoT devices has also driven the shipment volume of mature process chips.
Influenced by geopolitical factors, the regional layout of mature process capacity is accelerating. Regions such as Singapore and Southeast Asia are attracting the transfer of large amounts of mature process capacity with policy support and industrial chain advantages. The capacity utilization rate of Singapore's wafer fabs reached a two-year high in the second quarter of 2026, showing increased activity in the mature process foundry market.
Notably, mature process foundry prices are also showing signs of increase. With demand recovery and limited capacity expansion, several wafer foundries have announced price increases for mature processes, a trend expected to continue in the second half of the year.
Regionalization and Diversification Trends in the Semiconductor Supply Chain
The global semiconductor supply chain continues to show trends of regionalization and diversification in 2026. Governments are actively building domestic semiconductor industrial chains through policy support and financial investment to reduce dependence on single regions.
The launch of the second phase of the EU's Chip Act marks a new stage in Europe's semiconductor autonomy strategy. The plan invests 12 billion euros to strengthen Europe's capabilities in semiconductor manufacturing, R&D, and talent development. Meanwhile, countries and regions such as the United States, Japan, and South Korea have also introduced similar policies to promote the regional layout of the semiconductor supply chain.
In the Asian region, Singapore continues to attract global semiconductor investment with its advantageous geographical location, stable political environment, and mature industrial ecosystem. Since 2026, several international semiconductor companies have announced capacity expansion or new factory establishments in Singapore, further consolidating its position as an Asian semiconductor hub.
Future Outlook and Investment Strategies
Looking ahead to the second half of 2026, the semiconductor market's supply-demand structure will continue to show structural characteristics. AI chips, high-performance memory, and mature
