On August 5th, TrendForce released its latest memory spot price trend report, where a set of seemingly contradictory data points captured market attention: the upward momentum of DRAM spot prices has noticeably weakened since late July, with the weekly percentage increase for mainstream DDR4 chips narrowing to 0.17%; conversely, the spot price of 512Gb TLC NAND wafers surged by 4.55% in one week, reaching $20.125. With both increases and decreases, fast and slow movements coexisting, the memory chip market is entering a subtle phase of "high-level gear shifting."
As a core component of the current AI semiconductor super cycle, every move by memory chips keeps the entire industry chain on edge. Does the slowing momentum in spot prices mean the uptrend has peaked? Or is it merely a breather during the ascent? Answering this requires re-examining spot, contract, demand, and inventory on the same map.
Spot "Gear Shift": DRAM Momentum Slows, NAND Wafers Rise 4.55% Weekly
According to the spot price report released by TrendForce on August 5th, the DRAM spot market showed a general sideways trend this week. Although the prices of 4Gb DDR4 and 2Gb DDR3 chips are still rising gradually, the upward slope has narrowed significantly compared to late July—buyers and sellers have not reached a consensus on pricing, leading to limited trading volume. Taking mainstream DDR4 1Gx8 3200MT/s as an example, the average spot price slightly increased from $42.04 on the previous week (July 29th) to $42.11 this week (August 4th), with a weekly increase of only 0.17%.
In contrast is NAND flash memory. Against the backdrop of weak end-user demand and a lack of large-scale orders, the spot price of 512Gb TLC wafers still recorded a weekly increase of 4.55%, reaching $20.125. TrendForce noted in the report that the sustainability of this price rebound remains to be seen—"the lack of strong purchasing demand" implies that the rebound's foundation is not solid.
How to Interpret "Price Rise with Volume Contraction"?
The "price rise with volume contraction" or "volume-price divergence" in the spot market usually has two interpretations: first, sellers are reluctant to supply, and the supply is genuinely tight, with prices driven by structural gaps; second, market sentiment inflates quotes, but there is no transactional confirmation, making it a "speculative rise." Current DRAM and NAND present different signal combinations: DRAM is characterized by "narrowing gains and thin trading," resembling a re-battle between buyers and sellers at high prices; NAND is characterized by "price surges without corresponding demand," resembling supply-side quoting preceding demand-side observation.
Regardless of the scenario, there is one conclusion: the memory spot market is transitioning from a phase of "unilateral general rise" to a new stage of "high-level volatility and structural differentiation." For buyers, this means an increased risk of blindly chasing high prices, highlighting the value of purchasing in batches according to needs and locking in long-term contract prices.
Contract Prices Remain High: The "Price Ladder" from Q1 to Q3
Unlike the cautious sentiment in the spot market, the contract market continues to show astonishing increases. According to previous data from TrendForce, global DRAM contract prices rose by 90% month-on-month from Q1 to Q2, reaching 95%, while NAND contract prices rose by about 55% to 60%; in the second quarter, DRAM contract prices rose another 58% to 63%, and NAND contract prices rose 70% to 75%. Even though the rate of increase narrowed each quarter, the market generally expects DRAM contract prices to rise by 13% to 18% month-on-month in the third quarter, and NAND contract prices to rise by 10% to 15%. In other words, the momentum of spot prices is slowing down, which is more a natural deceleration after prices have reached a high level rather than a signal of demand reversal. The continuous double-digit or even multi-digit month-on-month increase in contract prices over three consecutive quarters has fundamentally changed the cost weight of memory chips in end devices—industry estimates show that the proportion of memory chips in the total cost of smartphones has risen from the previous 10% to 15% to 20% to 30%.
Demand Side: AI Super Cycle Unchanged, Institutions Collectively Raise Full-Year Forecasts
Behind the "temperature difference" between spot and contract prices is a consensus bullish outlook from institutions for the full year of 2026. Market research firm Omdia recently stated that due to AI demand continuously exceeding global supply, the DRAM and NAND markets are experiencing explosive growth. The company has upgraded its forecast for global semiconductor market revenue growth in 2026 to 94.1% year-on-year, and expects memory chips to account for over 50% of the total semiconductor market revenue.
The calculations from Qunzhi Consulting are even more aggressive: global semiconductor sales in 2026 are expected to exceed $1.5 trillion, reaching approximately $1.587 trillion, a year-on-year increase of about 107%; memory chip revenue is estimated at about $960 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 290%, accounting for about 60% of global semiconductor sales. In terms of DRAM, HBM and DDR are "dual drivers," with the HBM market size expected to exceed $100 billion. The crowding-out effect of HBM capacity on DDR wafer capacity has led to unprecedented tightness in the supply and demand of the entire DDR product line—for example, the average price of DDR rose 4 to 5 times compared to the same period in 2025 in the third quarter. For NAND Flash, the strong demand from AI servers for enterprise SSDs is expected to drive NAND revenue growth of nearly 250% in 2026.
Although the forecasts from the two firms differ in scope, the direction is highly consistent: AI infrastructure investment is the sole main theme of this cycle, and memory chips are the most dazzling segment of this main theme. Omdia also points out that AI demand has already exceeded the existing chip production and packaging capabilities of the industry, and capacity bottlenecks in HBM, advanced packaging, and advanced processes are expected to last at least until 2027—meaning the supply and demand tightness is not a short-term phenomenon but a structural issue spanning multiple years.
Singapore Perspective: Manufacturing PMI Rises for 12 Consecutive Months, Electronics Orders Hit Highest Since 2018
This AI-driven memory super cycle is leaving a clear mark on the Southeast Asian supply chain. Data released by the Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management (SIPMM) on August 3 shows that Singapore's manufacturing PMI rose by 0.1 points month-on-month in July to 51.4, remaining in the expansion zone for the 12th consecutive month. Among these, the electronics PMI rose by 0.2 points to 52.4, expanding for the 14th consecutive month, and the new export orders index climbed to 52.6, the highest since mid-2018.
Economists point out that the manufacturing and electronics PMIs of Singapore have reached new highs since November 2018 and January 2018, respectively, with the semiconductor "super cycle" being the core driver behind this. The strong demand for chips and electronic components has not only boosted new orders but has also driven manufacturing employment. It is worth noting that the finished goods inventory index has been in contraction for the third consecutive month, indicating that while manufacturers are highly confident in AI demand, they are still cautiously controlling inventory levels—which is a rational response to high prices and also leaves room for subsequent restocking demand. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, capital expenditure by hyperscale cloud service providers is expected to remain robust, potentially further driving demand for storage chips and server-related components manufactured in Singapore. For companies with Southeast Asian supply chains centered in Singapore, this presents both an order opportunity and means that the procurement costs of key materials such as wafers, dies, and modules will continue to face upward pressure.
Interpretation: What does the divergence between spot and contract mean?
- The price upcycle is not over, but the pace is changing. Consecutive increases in contract prices and stable high spot prices indicate that the fundamental supply and demand remain tight, but the marginal upward momentum is weakening, and "general increases" will give way to "differentiation."
- Inventory discipline has become a new keyword. From the contraction of finished electronic inventory in Singapore to the sluggish transactions in the spot market, the industry chain is responding to high prices with a model of "low inventory + high turnover," which in turn provides support for prices.
- Procurement strategies require a combination of long and short-term planning. Faced with increased spot volatility, locking in long-term contracts, diversifying suppliers, and moderately building safety stock have become priority options in procurement decisions; while the investment side should pay more attention to memory manufacturers with production capacity and pricing power, as well as equipment and material segments benefiting from the capacity expansion cycle.
Overall, the memory market in 2026 is shifting from "general increases" to "intensive cultivation." For industry participants, what is truly important may not be predicting the next price peak, but understanding how this AI-driven supercycle is reshaping the value distribution of the supply chain—who can adjust their product lines sooner and manage inventory and costs more stably will gain the upper hand in this period of differentiation.
